Rystad Energy has developed a global oil supply model, UCube (“Upstream cube”). UCube is a ‘bottom-up’ model based on field by field production, summing up to one hundred percent of global production, and including estimated production from undiscovered fields. We see the model as differing from other supply models primarily in being driven at a detailed asset-based micro level. In the model the decision as to whether any specific field or project is developed depends on the resource available, the price structure of this class of resource and its anticipated capital and operating spend profile, and hence on whether a positive NPV results at the model’s current assumed price level. Moreover, we believe that the model is calibrated using a broader set of sources than most comparable databases, where these sources include reported data from oil companies, oil service companies, governmental sources and scientific publications. In particular, the database aims to be consistent on resource estimates, for example by not mixing US 1P reserves with OPEC ~3P data. In the paper we discuss how the model is constructed, the advantages of such an approach, and how it can be used to forecast future oil supply and oil field spending.
Wold, E. (2015) Bottom-up Modelling of Future Global Oil Supply and Associated Spend The Oil Age 1 (4) 19-39.
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