This paper is the continuation of a previous one looking at the link between estimates for the size of the global ultimately recoverable resource (‘URR’) of conventional oil and the differences between forecasts for global oil production from different organisations. In this paper the estimates of URR examined are those from: the US EIA (2013), the IEA’s ‘Resources into Reserves’ study (2013), IHS CERA (2014), Campbell (2015), Globalshift Ltd. (2015), Laherrère (2015) and Miller (2015).
Full conclusions will be drawn in a follow-up part (Part 3) of this paper. Here, the reader’s attention is drawn to the difference between estimates for the global URR of conventional oil generated primarily from discovery data (and sometimes with adjustments for data quality), and the more ‘mainstream’ URR estimates generated by what may be called ‘assessment procedures’.
Bentley, R. W. (2015) A Review of some Estimates for the Global Ultimately Recoverable Resource (‘URR’)of Conventional Oil, as an Explanation for the Differences between Oil Forecasts (part 2). The Oil Age 1 (4) 55-77.
Download PDF – Free