The Oil Age Journal

Abstract

This paper describes the computational model: Agent-based Computational Economics of the Global Energy System (ACEGES). This is agent-based in that it determines aspects of the global energy system by modelling interactions between individual agents (decision-making entities) that act within this system. The model contains a number of different classes of agents, and the behaviour of each agent within a given class follows user-defined rules. Multiple model runs allow statistical envelopes of behaviour ranges to be generated. Since considerable complexity can arise in a wide range of systems when even simple individual rules are being followed, it is suggested that the agent-based approach presents a realistic way to capture such overall system behaviour.

This paper illustrates the use of this agent-based approach for forecasting global oil and gas supply, and presents details both of the model and of indicative results. It is recognised that the model needs further expansion (for example, by incorporation of additional information on the difference between the supply of conventional and non-conventional hydrocarbons) if it is to provide a full picture of reality. This expansion is underway and will be reported in subsequent papers.

Voudouris V., Kiose, D. & Scandroglio, G. (2016) Advancing Oil (and Gas) Scenarios: The ACEGES Computational Laboratory The Oil Age 2 (1) 9-28.

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