This paper is the final part of a three-part paper examining the link between estimates for the size of the global ultimately recoverable resource (‘URR’) of conventional oil and the differences between forecasts for global ‘all-oil’ production from different organisations.
Firstly in this paper the historical estimates of global URR by category of oil contained in Hubbert’s 1949 Science article are presented, and are compared to later estimates he used. Then an approximate current minimum value is given for the URR of global conventional oil based on three recent ‘mainstream’ oil forecasts, those from ExxonMobil, BP, and the IEA. A table is then presented that summarises the global URR estimates, by category of oil, covered in all three parts of this paper.
Finally, the difference between current URR estimates for global conventional oil is examined in terms of those estimates which are broadly in line with global proved-plus-probable (‘2P’) oil discovery data (in some cases, with adjustment for assumed data quality), and those estimates which differ significantly from this discovery trend. The paper concludes by suggesting that oil forecasts which use (or generate) global conventional oil URR estimates roughly in agreement with global 2P conventional oil discovery data are the more likely to be correct.
Bentley, R.W. A Review of some Estimates for the Global Ultimately Recoverable Resource (‘URR’) of Conventional Oil, as an Explanation for the Differences between Oil Forecasts (part 3) The Oil Age 2 (1) 57-81.
Download PDF – Free