The Oil Age Journal

Abstract

This is the second part of a three-part paper that looks at the data needed to make forecasts of oil production, and highlights some of the significant problems with these data. The paper is primarily intended for those that forecast oil production, but will be of interest also to those who use such forecasts, to judge the quality of the data employed and hence this aspect of a forecast’s reliability.

The first part of this paper discussed the data by type (e.g. data on production, consumption, and reserves) and pointed out areas where these data are unreliable, in particular with regards to reserves data. This second part of the paper includes annexes on oil gravity and energy content, oil net-energy, greenhouse gas emissions, and importantly, comparison of proved (‘1P’) vs. proved-plus-probable (‘2P’) reserves.

The third part of the paper will discuss data by source (e.g. the data from the IEA, IHS Energy, and JODI) and again points out areas where the data are unreliable or must be treated with caution. In addition, this part of the paper includes annexes on use of data to forecast oil production, and the accuracy of past oil forecasts and projections.

Laherrère, J., Miller, R., Campbell, C., Wang, J. & Bentley, R. (2016) Oil Forecasting: Data Sources and Data Problems (part 2) The Oil Age 2 (4) 1-88

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